As tensions rise, unverified claims find fertile ground online – Social Media Monitor
From false reports of a death in Zambia to speculation about Paul Biya’s health and narratives around the war in Tigray – a look at the most notable signals emerging from African social media.
Not everything that dominates social media deserves a place in a monitoring brief. Over the past three weeks, some of the loudest conversations were also the most predictable: Zambia’s approaching election, Uganda’s proposed troop deployment to Gaza, and familiar debates over political leadership, governance and the cost of living. Much of that traffic followed the news cycle or reflected straightforward political campaigning, so we left it there.
More interesting were the stories developing around the edges of those conversations. In Zambia, an already tense campaign produced disputed accounts of violence – including a false report of a death in Mongu that police were forced to correct publicly. In Cameroon, Paul Biya’s unusually long absence from the country fuelled another round of speculation about his health and whereabouts. Elsewhere, allegations surrounding the police remained part of the political conversation in South Africa, while a genuine environmental lawsuit against BP in Kenya acquired a broader anti-British framing online. In Somalia, shifting front lines once again made it difficult to distinguish battlefield claims from established facts.
These are the signals we chose to keep: not necessarily the biggest stories of the period, and not necessarily evidence of organised information activity, but narratives where fact, speculation and political messaging are beginning to overlap – and where another look may be worthwhile.
Platforms monitored: X/Twitter (Trends24, last three weeks), TikTok Creative Center (last three weeks), and manual Facebook monitoring.
Geographic scope: Zambia, Uganda, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Kenya, Somalia.
Zambia: Election-day information environment
Zambia votes on 13 August in a closely contested presidential election between incumbent Hakainde Hichilema and opposition candidate Brian Mundubile. Reuters has reported opposition allegations that the government has restricted campaigning, which Hichilema denies.
In recent days, police used tear gas at a Mundubile rally in Mongu. Following the incident, Police Inspector General Graphel Musamba dismissed social media reports that a person had died as false, saying no death had been recorded.
Mundubile has also called for clarification from the Electoral Commission over ballot-marking rules and faster publication of presidential results.
On X, the campaign environment is increasingly being discussed in terms of political intimidation, a “police state” and possible interference with the vote.
Keywords/hashtags: Brian Mundubile, Hakainde Hichilema, Mongu, ECZ, ballot marking, #ZambiaDecides
Uganda: Gaza deployment debate and premature deployment claims
Uganda’s Parliament on 6 August approved the potential deployment of UPDF troops to Gaza as part of a proposed international stabilisation force under a U.S.-backed framework. No deployment timetable has been confirmed. On X, some posts describe the mission as Uganda sending troops to “fight for Israel and America” and link it to domestic criticism of the UPDF. Other posts state or imply that Ugandan soldiers have already arrived in Gaza, including unverified claims that they have suffered casualties.
Keywords: Uganda Gaza, UPDF Gaza, International Stabilization Force, Museveni, Muhoozi